FOMC Comes and Goes + COIN 🪙+RSI2 Study 📝

Daily Market Model Update for 6/18/25

*This one is long, make sure you click through to the site to read it, because your email provider might cut off the bottom of the email and there are some good charts in there at the bottom!*

Welcome to the Daily Report where I review what happened in the past trading day, the driving forces behind the moves🚀. At the end of the day, I publish the signals from a Short-Term trading portfolio that trades between 4 -10 day holding periods (currently beating the S&P500 by a lot this year), an Intermediate Term Portfolio that holds for about 3 months on average targeting 15-25% yearly returns, and the actual signals I use for trading my retirement accounts using mean reversion (5 different systems that average 10-20% yearly gains on the indexes). Everything comes with back tested results on the setup📝 and the entries and exits always happen at the end of the day so you can buy and sell in the after-hours session (or on the open the next session if you prefer). I personally trade these signals, so there is no funny business here. I eat my own cooking🍳.

Let’s review what happened today!

What Drove Today’s Move

COIN 0.00%↑ was up almost 20% today, related to the Crypto Bill in congress, I guess. Not the worst place to take some profit on it. I’ve circled the last time it looked like this on the chart below. It wasn’t pretty what happened after that.

COIN Could Sell Soon

The FOMC presser came and went and really the only thing that kind of raised my eyebrows in it was that Powell was pretty adamant that the tariffs were going to cause inflation. He did stress that the economy was “solid” - which was a weird term to use, especially coming out of a nerd like him. 🤔 Inflation is coming, Fed will once again be behind the curve and miss it. The market did its normal thing and sold while Powell was talking (we even got a major sell program cluster that popped off around 6035 on ES September Futures). We still held 596-597 on SPY (Zero Gamma Area).

We closed the RSI2 in a funny spot - it’s not quite oversold, but it’s pretty low. You would think that would be bullish, but it’s not. 😮 Typically, it’s associated with a slow rollover and the risk to reward over the next few days are not skewed bullish.

RSI2 Not Quite Oversold for 2 Days in a Row, Hold X Days (1-17 Shown, Top to Bottom) - $100,000 Constant Position Size

Subs, I go over some insider buying in a sector no one is looking at right now. 👀👀