Hedges Were a Gift Yesterday 🎁

Daily Market Model Update for 6/17/25

*This one is long, make sure you click through to the site to read it, because your email provider might cut off the bottom of the email and there are some good charts in there at the bottom!*

Welcome to the Daily Report where I review what happened in the past trading day, the driving forces behind the moves🚀. At the end of the day, I publish the signals from a Short-Term trading portfolio that trades between 4 -10 day holding periods (currently beating the S&P500 by a lot this year), an Intermediate Term Portfolio that holds for about 3 months on average targeting 15-25% yearly returns, and the actual signals I use for trading my retirement accounts using mean reversion (5 different systems that average 10-20% yearly gains on the indexes). Everything comes with back tested results on the setup📝 and the entries and exits always happen at the end of the day so you can buy and sell in the after-hours session (or on the open the next session if you prefer). I personally trade these signals, so there is no funny business here. I eat my own cooking🍳.

Let’s review what happened today!

What Drove Today’s Move

While everyone else was busy slapping each other on the back about how good of an idea it is to buy these dips and commenting on how Geopolitical Events never result in large stock market declines, we were warning yesterday’s down move in Vix was a gift to get hedged into this conflict. 🤔

The difference between the rest of the events in the recent past and now is Trump. Anyone that lived through the first presidency should know the admin will not handle any kind of real, adult situation very well. Once again, the analogy I use with these folks is a person in a pitch-black room fumbling around looking for the light switch. They walk around, kick furniture, stumble and feel around with their hands until they get something that feels like a light switch and flip it. If that’s not the right one, they run around kicking the furniture until they get the next switch flipped. We are all just hoping they figure it out and quick.

The Vix setups from a week or more ago are not one and done kind of things, they’ll take a while to wring out this excess. Cycles are not bullish on this market again for months and months and months. Economic data sucks still. This is not a market that is to be trusted yet. Subs will remember this graph from a week or more ago.

Vix Spike Setup Nailed It This Time

All that being said - we still weren’t able to close in negative gamma territory, but we are well under Volatility Trigger levels. Under 597 on SPY and things will get bearish very quickly and 590 is a level where I would expect us to go test. There is some pretty good support there. We would need some kind of calamity (completely possible) to really push it under 590.

Solar stocks got destroyed today as the Senate released their version of the Big Beautiful Bill. But look where TAN (Solar ETF) found support. At the Green Line - that is showing institutions buying these stocks. I like Solars down here still.

Solar Stocks Getting Bought for Cheap By ‘Tutes Today