Monthly Options Expiration Annoying 🤬

Daily Market Model Update for 6/20/25

*This one is long, make sure you click through to the site to read it, because your email provider might cut off the bottom of the email and there are some good charts in there at the bottom!*

Welcome to the Daily Report where I review what happened in the past trading day, the driving forces behind the moves🚀. At the end of the day, I publish the signals from a Short-Term trading portfolio that trades between 4 -10 day holding periods (currently beating the S&P500 by a lot this year), an Intermediate Term Portfolio that holds for about 3 months on average targeting 15-25% yearly returns, and the actual signals I use for trading my retirement accounts using mean reversion (5 different systems that average 10-20% yearly gains on the indexes). Everything comes with back tested results on the setup📝 and the entries and exits always happen at the end of the day so you can buy and sell in the after-hours session (or on the open the next session if you prefer). I personally trade these signals, so there is no funny business here. I eat my own cooking🍳.

Let’s review what happened today!

What Drove Today’s Move

It was a classic, really annoying close for the Monthly Options Expiration. We pinned in like a 5-handle range on ES for almost an hour into the close as market makers scammed a bunch of options buyers and made sure they maximized the PnL. That’s why Ken Griffin can buy copies of the Declaration of Independence, right there, folks. For the rest of us, it was an annoying day. I don’t normally trade Op-Ex, and I decided to do it today. I ended up wasting a lot of time, not making any money and getting pissed off, so I’m not going to do that again.

Market Makers Pinned It Here, Very Annoying

We got the Philly Fed Regional Manufacturing Survey, and it continues to reflect what we are seeing in the other areas of the country as price pressures have eased. But that big increase that we have seen since the election will need to pass through the CPI calculations. That is what is keeping the Fed from cutting rates. Someone should tap Trump on the shoulder and tell him the score.

Philly Fed Shows Price Pressures Finally Easing - We Still Need to See CPI Panic First Though

If that continues, whatever panic we get from the coming high CPI readings should be a buying opportunity.