Monthly Update

State of the Economy + Trends

Here is the update on the various monthly models.

ISM PMI

Purchasing manager’s index for ISM came out and it is finally actually moving more bullish (though it is still < 50, which indicates contraction in the economy). The best part is that the move was enough to reverse the model’s sell signal from back in August! This is great news. I’m very happy to see this. This was one major reason I’ve been trading half size for a couple months now. If the rest of the stuff flips bullish, I’ll have to move my position sizing back to normal / leveraged.

PMI Model Flips Back Bullish

The equity curve for the model is shown, so you can see that it’s very good and it goes ALLLLLLL the way back to 1960.

Equity Curve for the PMI Model

CPI and PPI (Inflation Numbers)