Monthly Update

State of the Economy + Trends

Here is the update on the various monthly models I track. This report is built for those very busy professionals that can’t look at the market much more than once a month but still want to avoid bear markets and beat the market. These models all trade very infrequently.

I keep track of only a few tried and true, time tested “Macro” data points. Those will keep you out of high inflation and inform you of incoming poor economic conditions.

Let’s look at the models!

ISM PMI

This model is a broad measure of how well the manufacturing industry. Why keep track of the manufacturing industry? Because it’s the single most sensitive area of the economy. When manufacturing catches a cold, it leads the stock market most of the time - the stock market gets sick shortly afterwards.

Purchasing manager’s index for ISM this month was actually good. We climbed back over 50, which is great news. We have only spent 1 tiny month over the 50 mark for the last 2 YEARS. I’m very happy to see this, I know folks that work in the manufacturing industry probably are starting to feel a little more relief.

PMI Model is Bullish and Getting Stronger

The equity curve for the model is shown, so you can see that it’s very good and it goes ALLLLLLL the way back to 1960.

Equity Curve for the PMI Model

CPI and PPI (Inflation Numbers)