Monthly Update for April 2025📉🩸💀

State of the Economy + Trends🏭

Here is the update on the various monthly models I track. This report is built for those very busy professionals that can’t look at the market much more than once a month but still want to avoid bear markets📉 and beat the market🚀. These models all trade very infrequently.

I keep track of only a few tried and true, time tested “Macro” data points. Those will keep you out of high inflation, rampant speculation and inform you of incoming poor economic conditions.

Let’s look at the models!

ISM PMI (Updated April 1st, 2025)

This model is a broad measure of how well the manufacturing industry. Why keep track of the manufacturing industry? Because it’s the single most sensitive area of the economy🏭. When manufacturing catches a cold🤒, it leads the stock market most of the time - the stock market gets sick shortly afterwards🤮.

Purchasing manager’s index for this month was a disaster - back into contraction. This caused the model to return to a bearish stance again. That’s terrible - this was the one piece of economic data that was holding up and it’s now turned lower. Prices paid subcomponent was almost 70! That was about where it was when inflation was 6%+ and on the way to 8+%. Inflation is kicking up extremely fast and aggressively due to tariffs. I said last month that I thought the increased manufacturing activity would be short lived and will produce a massive hangover afterwards - demand will collapse. This is looking like what is happening as we speak. Very disappointing to see😔. I cannot stress enough how bad this is.

PMI Model Returns to Bear Mode After Tariff Induced Brief Respite

The equity curve for the model is shown, so you can see that it’s very good and it goes ALLLLLLL the way back to 1960.

CPI and PPI (Inflation Numbers, Updated March 12-13th, 2025)