Monthly Update for May 2025 🤞

State of the Economy + Trends🏭

Here is the update on the various monthly models I track. This report is built for those very busy professionals that can’t look at the market much more than once a month but still want to avoid bear markets📉 and beat the market🚀. These models all trade very infrequently.

I keep track of only a few tried and true, time tested “Macro” data points. Those will keep you out of high inflation, rampant speculation and inform you of incoming poor economic conditions.

Let’s look at the models!

ISM PMI (Updated May 1st, 2025)

This model is a broad measure of how well the manufacturing industry. Why keep track of the manufacturing industry? Because it’s the single most sensitive area of the economy🏭. When manufacturing catches a cold🤒, it leads the stock market most of the time - the stock market gets sick shortly afterwards🤮.

Purchasing manager’s index for this month was again a disaster - we continue to see contraction in Manufacturing Activity despite promises from the admin to bring it back. Very bearish.

PMI Model Remains on Sellc

The equity curve for the model is shown, so you can see that it’s very good and it goes ALLLLLLL the way back to 1960.

CPI and PPI (Inflation Numbers, Updated April 10-11th, 2025)