Morning Report + CRWD Gap Down Study 🤔

Day Trading Update 6/04/25

Welcome to the morning report, where I go over the setup for the day as it relates to day trading. I’ll review levels using options gamma and show you where the support and resistance lie along with some other proprietary metrics like options skew that have good track records for forecasting bullish or bearish tendencies for the day.

Let’s see what the day has in store for us!

Today’s Setup

We are treading water this morning. I’m still working on getting my files back after my primary machine died yesterday - some of them didn’t transfer over and it will be a couple days before I’m back to normal. One side effect of using TradeStation to trade is that it does not like OneDrive from Microsoft (or any other software that automatically backs stuff up to the cloud). So, I have to manually backup my stuff every month or so. Luckily, I did most all of them on June 1st, but some of the newer Excel based stuff hasn’t been done yet or hasn’t been done since March, so just bear with me.

Yesterday we got more evidence that the Tariff front running hangover is here with Factory Order contracting -3.7%, well above the -3% consensus. 🤔 JOLTS continues to hang in there with Job Openings still tracking well above levels that would freak the Fed out.

This morning, we got the ADP Employment report though and it is getting really, really anemic here with only 37,000 jobs added last month. Normally we’d like to see 100,000+ jobs on this survey (and even more during an economic recovery). The ADP stuff can lead the rest of the market, so we are likely finally seeing a large-scale labor slow down. 😔

CRWD 0.00%↑ is down 7-8% after it’s parabolic run here. Could be a candidate to short if it rallies back near the VWAP intraday. We didn’t get Dots yet on this one, but we got the bottom indicator well into overbought for the short setup.

CRWD Breaking Out of Parabolic Run

When CRWD pulls a -7% gap down, it generally keeps going down a few days later. Only 33% chance of higher out 3 days (which would be Monday in this case).

CRWD Gap Down -7%, Buy on Close, Hold X Sessions (1 to 5 Shown, Top to Bottom) - $100,000 Constant Position