Morning Report + Israel Thing + Friday the 13th Stats 🔪🩸

Day Trading Update 6/13/25

Welcome to the morning report, where I go over the setup for the day as it relates to day trading. I’ll review levels using options gamma and show you where the support and resistance lie along with some other proprietary metrics like options skew that have good track records for forecasting bullish or bearish tendencies for the day.

Let’s see what the day has in store for us!

Today’s Setup

We got news last night that Israel was striking Iran. 💣💣💣 We could see something was cooking because the odds on PolyMarket started spiking yesterday morning. I posted a little Note about that on this platform. 🤔

That has some of the predictable names popping like defense stocks (LMT, GD, NOC) and oil ripped 10+% higher, but all that has come off the boil as the market found some footing overnight. 😅 Vix hit almost 22 before pulling back. Still, this is a nice pop, and we will finally have some puts underneath us as support after this little incident.

The Geopolitical Risk is likely going to take a while to work through, and it ensures we now have a nice floor under the oil markets again. 💁‍♂️ This is going to be bad for inflation in the US. Again, no one expects inflation to roar, and I know none of the yahoos in Washington are thinking about how any of the stuff going on in the Middle East affects inflation. No one will do anything about any of it until the stale CPI numbers show issues. Sad!

We are going to open under Zero Gamma for QQQ and possibly right around Zero Gamma for SPY. This is bearish. Re-testing the overnight lows would be the trade I’d be looking for today with resistance at 21,693 on NQ futures (we are around those levels this morning) and 6009-6016 on ES futures. Either of those areas should provide nice shorting opportunities today. The weekend is going to be full of headlines, so buckle up.

This publication has been pounding the table on Energy names (and oil) for a few weeks, ever since April based on this kind of setup - tapping the red bands. 😍 These are great long term compelling valuations for energy names. It is unbelievable these names got this cheap, especially with inflation continuing to be an issue.

Weekly Oil Setup Was Great Coming Out of April

Here are some fun stats you probably won’t find in most publications. This is what happens when you buy a Friday the 13th on the SPY (e.g. buy the close of today) and hold for a few days. Not too bad out into Tuesday, that is substantially better than random odds using a holding period of 2 sessions. Is a pattern like this tradeable? Probably not, but it’s fun to look at. 🤓

Buy Friday the 13th, Hold X Days (1 to 5 Shown, Top to Bottom) - $100,000 Constant Sized Position on SPY