Morning Report + No Puts 🫤

Day Trading Update 6/10/25

Welcome to the morning report, where I go over the setup for the day as it relates to day trading. I’ll review levels using options gamma and show you where the support and resistance lie along with some other proprietary metrics like options skew that have good track records for forecasting bullish or bearish tendencies for the day.

Let’s see what the day has in store for us!

Today’s Setup

We went down and tested some weekly support levels overnight, which is something we’ve been looking for us to do for a little while. We do need to see if we can do something like this or worse during the day session. Preferably, I’d like to see us tag 21643 or worse. We need to wring out some excess in this market now.

Testing Weekly Support x2 - Still Want to See Yellow Line Tested (Weekly VWAP)

TSLA 0.00%↑ on the move this morning. We reviewed this long setup a couple times this past week. Looks like it’s holding so far.

TSLA Continues to Hold Major Support

This morning, we got the Small Business Optimism Index. This is a nice thing to watch if you want to know how a Trump Voter is responding economically (80-90% of them Vote Trump). We got the index to rise for the first time in 4 months finally in May. This is the first Survey after Trump caved on Tariffs and reflects his base’s rapidly returning optimism that the Economy will get better. Expectations for higher sales have ripped higher by 11 points on the survey and inflation has been reduced from the top concern to the third highest concern. Number one is now taxes - which is normal for this survey. Nature is healing over there in MAGA.

I’m starting to see a theme of real complacency with regard to inflation here. I’ve been pounding the table on gasoline since back around April and it’s finally moving. The INFL 0.00%↑ ETF is getting up for a large move on the Dailies. Look at the pinch on the bands on the bottom indicator. This is setting up for a potential breakout to the upside. Most breakouts fail of course, so if it does make the push up, being prepared for the pullback to buy would be the strategy.

Wages on the PCE report were ripping at +6.6%, we got Farm Prices still moving up double digits year over year and even expectations for Food Prices in the Fed Inflation Expectations Survey yesterday were continuing to rip, despite the headline number being a “beat.” Until I start to really see things roll over in earnest (meaning the economic indicators start to do what they did back in 2022 when inflation topped), I have to continue lean towards high and sustained inflation.

Subs - I will review the Gamma Profile this morning and point out some things that has changed since yesterday. I’ll also review the coming setup for the Bond auctions and put that into context, so we can be prepared for the next couple days.