Morning Report + Panic! 😱

Day Trading Update 6/16/25

Welcome to the morning report, where I go over the setup for the day as it relates to day trading. I’ll review levels using options gamma and show you where the support and resistance lie along with some other proprietary metrics like options skew that have good track records for forecasting bullish or bearish tendencies for the day.

Let’s see what the day has in store for us!

Today’s Setup

We continue to trade through the Israel thing and this weekend we more or less didn’t get anything crazy happen despite how sad the situation is, so the market gapped down on Sunday when the futures opened, and it was gobbled up simply because we had a LOT of puts purchased on the open Friday. ALOT. We mentioned the setup on Friday to subs. I was personally hoping we’d gap down on the open today so I could get some long entries, but I didn’t get my opportunity.

We did see some economic data this morning around 830 AM EST that was not good overall. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is back into deep contraction again after the sugar high of the Tariff front running earlier this year. A demand cliff is here due to the front running of the tariffs.

The good news in the survey was that the Pries Paid component is actually peaking, which is matching many other regional fed surveys. It’s down to 46.8 from 59 in June. While still much, much too high and inflationary - it’s starting to show signs of peaking. This is good and we can now start to get a handle on how high and how long CPI will rise in the coming months. 📝