Morning Report + Small Ranges Forecast 🤏

Day Trading Update 6/17/25

Welcome to the morning report, where I go over the setup for the day as it relates to day trading. I’ll review levels using options gamma and show you where the support and resistance lie along with some other proprietary metrics like options skew that have good track records for forecasting bullish or bearish tendencies for the day.

Let’s see what the day has in store for us!

Today’s Setup

Today it looks like we are setting up for a classic snoozer summertime fest into the FOMC announcement tomorrow. The ranges are microscopic today, some of the smallest I have seen in a long time.

If you have been irritated by the lack of volatility during the last couple weeks, you might want to take today off.

Retail Sales came in and just like we have been preparing for, demand is falling off a cliff. Pretty much across the board misses, big ones too. Some of it was due to a big drop in gas prices, but that has since reversed, and we aren’t going to see these numbers all of a sudden rise next month. This is why tariffs don’t work.

Import and Export prices are out too. Expectations were for them to outright decline, but that didn’t happen. We continue to believe inflation will be persistent and higher than expected and this report shows that.

Industrial production is out too. Again, a miss and showing continued weakness in manufacturing, particularly utilities this month. Capacity utilization is less than a year ago and well under the long-term average. Trump promised jobs, jobs, jobs for these folks and we just are not seeing evidence of it.