đ€Pause That Refreshes or Something Worse?
Daily Market Model Update for 8/5/26
*This one is long, make sure you click through to the site to read it, because your email provider might cut off the bottom of the email and there are some good charts in there at the bottom!*
Welcome to the Daily Report, where I review the dayâs market moves and their drivers. I share signals for two portfolios, along with many Special Opportunity trades throughout the year.
Short-Term - 4-to-10-day trades, up 58% in 2025 and up 24.34% in 2026 (vs. 12.81% on SPX as of 8/4/26)
My retirement accounts - Mean reversion systems averaging 10â20% long term
All setups are backtested, and trades are executed at dayâs end or on the open tomorrow. I personally follow these signalsâfull transparency.
Letâs review what happened today!
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What Drove Todayâs Move
Today we didnât do a whole lot, especially in the afternoon - it was classic August trading and flat as a pancake after the morning Retail Call Buying turned into a mini-panic after we crossed back under 775 on SPY.
We did see a mini-puke into the close because it looks like some folks got the earnings from WDC 0.00%â WDC and SNDK 0.00%â SNDK early. They are âMemory Chipâ stocks and both of them reported earnings that were not even close to good enough. SNDK only beat revenue by 8%. That had to be minimum a 30% beat to justify this kind of valuation. The Cycle is turning folks.
SNDK is expanding its share buybacks, what a waste of money. Management at these companies is stupid - they will never buy back the stock when itâs cheap - they always waste money on buybacks when the stocks are overvalued.
We covered most of the typical action today in Morning Report and it was useful to know if we dropped under 775 on SPY, weâd see a whoosh down, which is exactly what happened today. I didnât trade today personally, but I did call a nice trade for Founding Members in the Chat worth almost 20 handles on ES Futures and we went through our current trade on SLV 0.00%â SLV (itâs up 9.5% since we bottom ticked it on 6/24).
Miners have just gone nuts in the last 2 sessions. We werenât just long SLV 0.00%â SLV either. We have calls on a gold and silver miner that saw massive insider buying over the last few weeks and itâs up 8-9% today alone and 18% in the last 3 sessions. We are on a roll right now, I knew the second half of the year was going to be our time to shine and itâs here!
Oil Stocks Trading Like the Iran War is Done
We are really seeing the air come out of the oil stocks. I showed this chart of MPC 0.00%â MPC last week and suggested selling Calls into earnings (they do Gas Stations and refining). Turns out they are killing it, but the stock canât go up anymore because itâs overvalued and itâs all priced in. It looks like Semis did a few months ago.
It does not take a genius to see that itâs probably headed lower from here. By the way, the lows there in the middle of the chart? Green dots - that was Liberation Day. We were liberated from low gas prices on that day it turns out.
Iran is fiddling around and they said today that it was hard for them to find the Supreme Leader to talk to him about ceasefire stuff. I chuckled at that. It must just aggravate the hell out of the Trump admin not being able to get answers when they are trying desperately to Open the Strait. We wouldnât be in this position if we hadnât blown up all the leaders right from the get-go, they have no one to blame but themselves for this mess.
Itâs Not Just Gold and Silver
Copper is going nuts today too. Weekly charts are showing a Red Dot (TBD if it closes up here by Friday or not). You can see that is not a great sign for future copper prices - they normally drop after signals like this.
Do you think inflation is going down with Copper hitting record prices? No. Fed is behind the curve (AGAIN), and we are going to get to see if the Bond Market is going to force Scott âThe Traderâ Bessent to buy more Yen to support the melting US Bond Market. Japan ran out of money trying to support their Currency - will the US face the same fate?
We did get the Treasury Refunding Announcement from Bessent yesterday and it was interesting because they havenât reduced the size of offerings and still continue to say they could adjust it higher if needed (they have recently been adopting this bad little habit of raising more debt than they originally said they would - basically lying to markets). Markets have generally told the Treasury to knock it off, there is too much supply. But they donât listen (not surprising).
Most of the issuance is geared towards shorter term 3-Year notes because Bessent knows issuing longer term debt at high rates will bankrupt the US because it already spends more just paying out interest than it does on the Military. There is a lot of magical thinking up there in DC that these high rates are temporary, and weâll see 2% Mortgages again âsoonâ - you just wait, prosperity and housing for all is right around the corner. All the while, we waste billions every day flipping bombs around the Middle East. Canât make this stuff up.
For Subs
We got a few more exits on some of these moves on the Miners, huge moves in the last 3 sessions. We are booking profits on some names. We also have more trades now that weakness has materialized, right on time. My Favorite Oscillator is flashing a very timely signal too - donât miss it!!!!