Some Selling Materializes + Oil! 🛢️🛢️

Daily Market Model Update for 6/11/25

*This one is long, make sure you click through to the site to read it, because your email provider might cut off the bottom of the email and there are some good charts in there at the bottom!*

Welcome to the Daily Report where I review what happened in the past trading day, the driving forces behind the moves🚀. At the end of the day, I publish the signals from a Short-Term trading portfolio that trades between 4 -10 day holding periods (currently beating the S&P500 by a lot this year), an Intermediate Term Portfolio that holds for about 3 months on average targeting 15-25% yearly returns, and the actual signals I use for trading my retirement accounts using mean reversion (5 different systems that average 10-20% yearly gains on the indexes). Everything comes with back tested results on the setup📝 and the entries and exits always happen at the end of the day so you can buy and sell in the after-hours session (or on the open the next session if you prefer). I personally trade these signals, so there is no funny business here. I eat my own cooking🍳.

Let’s review what happened today!

What Drove Today’s Move

Today we got some good headlines out of Trump, and it sounds like the Trade War stuff coming to a close (at least this chapter is coming to a close). We reviewed the setup for subs a few days ago and thought we’d be getting good news from the Trade War front. Don’t forget Europe still needs to be done and they aren’t going to roll over because they are winning.

We did see some afternoon selling today for the first time in a while and finished perfectly perched above the Weekly VWAP on the QQQs.

QQQs Finding Support at Weekly VWAP (Yellow Line)

Now, the last time this happened is circled in Pink. We gapped up bigly the next day. Could we gap up again? I’ll review some nuance for subs that might help here.

In other areas of the market, oil was up 5% today. That’s not common at all and generally it’s bearish short term but look at the results between 1-2 months are spectacular. Profit factors of 2.8 to 3.35. I’ve been pounding the table on oil for a few weeks. Love the setup here and will be buying any weakness in the next week or so. Inflation, here we come!

Oil Up 5% in 1 Day, Buy and Hold X Bars (1 to 41 Days Shown in Increments of 5, Top to Bottom) - Constant $100,000 Position Size