Tiny Range 🤏🤏🤏

Daily Market Model Update for 6/4/25

*This one is long, make sure you click through to the site to read it, because your email provider might cut off the bottom of the email and there are some good charts in there at the bottom!*

Welcome to the Daily Report where I review what happened in the past trading day, the driving forces behind the moves🚀. At the end of the day, I publish the signals from a Short-Term trading portfolio that trades between 4 -10 day holding periods (currently beating the S&P500 by a lot this year), an Intermediate Term Portfolio that holds for about 3 months on average targeting 15-25% yearly returns, and the actual signals I use for trading my retirement accounts using mean reversion (5 different systems that average 10-20% yearly gains on the indexes). Everything comes with back tested results on the setup📝 and the entries and exits always happen at the end of the day so you can buy and sell in the after-hours session (or on the open the next session if you prefer). I personally trade these signals, so there is no funny business here. I eat my own cooking🍳.

Let’s review what happened today!

What Drove Today’s Move

Well - the computer guy charged my machine and said there was nothing wrong with it 🫤.

However, as I type this, it’s not holding a charge again. I’ll deal with it next week - I was able to port over all my files to the backup machine tonight so we are going to be rolling the rest of the week, should be no issues anymore.

I owe you folks a Monthly Report too - look for that this weekend. I still need to get internet hooked up to my new pad - hopefully Friday that gets done.

We literally didn’t do anything today. It was one of the smallest ranges I can remember in a long time. It was in the top 1st Percentile for Smallness over the last 3 Years. It might seem bearish, but it’s not really. This is what happens when you buy these small ranges and hold. Out 4 days that is not bad at all. Profit Factor from a random entry is 1.26, but Profit Factor on these Small Range days is 1.54.

Buy Top 1st Percentile Small Range Day, Sell X Days Later (1 to 5 Shown, Top to Bottom) - Constant $100,000 Position Size

Small ranges typically give rise to larger ranges, but they also signal LOW Volatility, which is almost always bullish. The issue is we’ve had a decent 3 day run that has produced a lot of Buy Programs - often that can signal exhaustion out 1-2 days.

Jobs Data sucked today, no surprise there. We are seeing the hangover subside from the Tariff front running and the demand collapse is here. Bonds were strong today, we like to see that.